AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 AM PDT SAT JUL 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR TO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR WILL THEN PUSH IN SUNDAY...ENDING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOT
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MINOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LEAVING
MOHAVE COUNTY WITH LITTLE GOING ON ELSEWHERE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL QUITE HIGH ACROSS MOHAVE...SRN CLARK...AND ERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...SO THERE IS STILL CONCERN FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT
THESE LOCATIONS.  WILL NEED TO SEE HOW FAST CIN ERODES...IF SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...WE PROBABLY WILL ONLY SEE VERY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS
BREAK THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL BE SENDING AN UPDATE
TO THE ZONES SHORTLY FOR WORDING.


.SHORT TERM...INTERESTING SCENARIO UNFOLDED OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO
SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER FROM COTTONWOOD
COVE TO NEEDLES. A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ARIZONA ROLLED IN FROM THE EAST...PRODUCING
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER 30 MPH IN KINGMAN AT 9 PM. AROUND 11 PM...IT
REACHED THE COLORADO RIVER AND MET UP WITH SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COUPLED LIFT WAS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP WHICH HAD BEEN IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AND THUNDERSTORMS BROKE OUT IN THE NEEDLES
VICINITY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS OCCURRED
BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES...AND THE LAST LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS
RECORDED JUST AFTER 1 AM. SINCE THEN...THE BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED
WEST OVER CLARK AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...PRODUCING BANDS OF
CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS BUT NO LIGHTNING OR MEASURABLE PRECIP.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS
EAST...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR NOTED ON SATELLITE NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM BARSTOW TO MOUNT CHARLESTON TO RACHEL. THIS DRYING/CLEARING
SHOULD MAKE FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY...LIMITING AFTERNOON
THUNDER CHANCES TO MOHAVE COUNTY AGAIN. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE TOMORROW AS RIDGING NOSES IN FROM
THE PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BELOW 15
PERCENT IN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE MOISTURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWFA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING
TODAY...AS OVERNIGHT CLOUDS/STORMS HAVE LEFT A DISORGANIZED PATTERN
IN THEIR WAKE. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT AND WARM WITHOUT ANY
PROBLEMS...BUT SMALL AREAS NEAR MOHAVE VALLEY MAY BE LESS WARM DUE
TO RESIDUAL COLD POOLS AND SOIL MOISTURE FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AS RIDGE HOLDS SWAY OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS THEN AND
WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...112
DEGREES AT LAS VEGAS...AROUND MIDWEEK ON. A CHANGE IS EXPECT TO
START FRIDAY AS A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE PACNW
THEN. MIGHT SEE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE
AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND DEPTH WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
FASTEST AND DEEPEST. CONCUR WITH DAY SHIFT ABOUT THE DEPICTION BEING
A BIT DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FLOW CHANGES LOOK FAVORABLE FRIDAY
ON FOR SOME MOISTURE TO BE PULLED INTO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE KEPT THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY IN MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 8-18KTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE 10-20KT RANGE. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE MINIMAL. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PEACH
SPRINGS CORRIDOR TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...IN THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY AREAS SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF ROUTE 66.
&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT LAS VEGAS
FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. THE LOW TEMPERATURE ONLY DROPPED TO 88
DEGREES...WHICH BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 87 SET IN 2001.

NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE RECORD HIGHS ON THESE
DAYS ARE RATHER LOW COMPARED TO MOST OTHERS IN THE BOOKS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. LAS VEGAS MAY ALSO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO TIE THE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE  FOR WEDNESDAY THE 9TH OF 86 SET IN
1996.

LOCATION         RECORD HIGH FOR 7/8   RECORD HIGH FOR 7/9
---------------------------------------------------------------------
LAS VEGAS        113/1989              113/1949
BISHOP           104/2002              107/2002
BARSTOW-DAGGETT  113/1976              113/2002
NEEDLES          117/1985              119/1961
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY DURING THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK TO POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY ACTIVITY BEING DRY LIGHTNING.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&